Bloggfrslur mnaarins, febrar 2009

Framsknarflokknum hta me Bshaldabyltingunni?

a er neitanlega skondi a fylgjast me stuningmnnum rkisstjrnarinnar belgja sig t gegn Framsknarmnnum essa dagana.

eir tala vi Framsknarflokkinn eins og gan krakka og ekki verur betur s en a alls kyns dylgjur og hlffaldar htanir su melin sem beitt er. Spurning hvort a Sigmundur verur ekki a koma blin aftur og fara a tala um "herferir".

En besta (og fyndnasta) htunin kemur fr Meri rnasyni, varingmanni og prfkjrskandidat Samfylkingar, en vefsu hans m lesa eftirfarandi:

Svar strax dag, Framsknarmenn. Annars byrja menn a taka bshldin aftur r r skpnum!

a er engu lkara en Mrur telji sig geta siga "Bshaldabyltingunni" Framsknarflokkinn.

Hvernig hljmar n gamla mltki? Skipa gti g vri mr hltt?Ea er ef til vill betra a nota, milli manns, hests og hunds liggur leynirur?


Lin rkisstjrn

g ver a viurkenna a mr ykir samstarf Samfylkingar, VG og Framsknarflokks ori trlega reytulegt, a s ingmeirihluti s ekki gamall.

a er lka merkilegt a sj a egar einhver ingmaur vill staldra vi, athuga mli betur og vinna mli frekar ingnefnd (hvar eru eir n sem vilja auka sjlfsti ingsins gegnrherrum) tlar allt vitlaust a vera. N virast margir vilja keyra mlin eins hratt gegnum ingi og nokkur kostur er.

N urfa ingmenn ekki a hugsa ea hika, n gildir a rtta upp hnd mglunarlaust. Eigin sannfring skiptir engu n, a a greia atkvi me rkisstjrninni.

N virist sem svo a ef frumvarp um endurskipulagningu Selabankans s ekki afgreitt hvelli, s voinn vs. Og arar tillgur rkisstjrnar Jhnnu er ekki hgt a ra ea leggja fram fyrr en bi er a samykkja Selabankafrumvarpi.

Trir essu einhver?

ess vegna var ekki hgt a halda ingfundi dag. a var ekkert a ra. Ekki einu sinni um andstu vi eldflaugavarnarkerfi A-Evrpu ea hvort a a megi selja fengi matvruverslunum, n ea kynjahlutfall stjrnum fyrirtkja (sj hr).

Nei, a er bara ekki hgt a ra neitt, heldur situr ingi einfaldlega agerarlaust.

a skiptir engu mli hvort a menn telji a Dav Oddsson eigi a vkja r Selabankanum eur ei, a getur ekki skipt llu mli hvort a lg eru samykkt essari viku ea nstu. eir sem hst tala um trverugleika ttu a hafa a huga a a er betra a vanda til verka egar lg eru sett um stofnanir eins og Selabankann. a m reyndar leyfa sr a efast um trverugleika rkisstjrnar sem lagi fram jafn meingalla frumvarp og nverandi rkisstjrn geri upphafi.

En a breytir v ekki a krinn er lngu farinn af sta, Hskuldur verur sakaur um a ganga erinda Davs Oddsonar og Sjlfstisflokkins. Hann verur settur gegnum "mulningsvlina", og reynt a gera strf hans sem tortryggilegust.

Allt vegna ess a hann st lappirnar, lt ekki framkvmdavaldi "rlla" yfir sig, sagi a a vri betra a ba og f frekari upplsingar.

Og svo afhjpai hann a rkisstjrnin hafi ekkert fram a fra Alingi dag, fyrst a umran gat ekki snist um Selabankann og Dav Oddsson.

Lklega er a strsti glpurinn.

En essi rkisstjrn virkar lin og a mettma. Ef til vill er a vegna ess a Jhanna og Steingrmur voru orin svo reytt v a ba eftir a eirra tmi myndi koma.


mbl.is Lausn ekki fundin
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

Ummli dagsins um Evrpska efnahagssamvinnu

Ummli dagsins koma fr Nicolas Sarkozy Frakklandsforseta. a er trlegt hve ummli forseta einhvers hrifamesta rkis "Sambandsins" endurspegla einingu sem bar "Sambandsins" finna fyrir og upplifa.

"It is justifiable if a Renault factory is built in India so that Renault cars may be sold to the Indians. But it is not justifiable if a factory of a certain producer, without citing anyone, is built in the Czech Republic and its cars are sold in France."

Nicolas Sarkozy

Ummlin eru fengin han.


Lfi ERM2 gildrunni

Vandaml Eystrasaltsrkjanna eru grarleg. Horfur eru grarlegum samdrttijarframleislu, tflutningur vk a verjast, atvinnuleysi eykst hrum skrefum oghsnisver fellur eins og steinn.

Samt hefur svo dmi s teki enginn banki falli Eistlandi (a hefur gerst Lettlandi), enda bankakerfi ar svo til allt eigu tlendinga. Samt hefur sknin ar euro veri svo mikil a fyrir hefur komi engin euro er a f einstkum stum.

Reyndar eru bankarnir Eistlandi alls ekki n vandra, en au lenda frekar murfyrirtkjum eirra, fellir hlutabrfaver eirra og margir vilja meina a vandri au sem Snskir bankar standa frammifyrir Eystrasaltslndunum hafi orsaka sig Snsku krnunnar anokkru leyti.

Eistnesk tflutningsfyrirtki hafa ori fyrir v a pantanir eru felldar niur, ea au hreinlega reyna sjlf a komast t r samningum, v a au geta ekki framleitt fyrir a ver sem um var sami.

Eistneska krnan er of h, vegna ess hve gengi eurosins er htt gegn gjaldmilum margra viskiptalanda Eistlendinga. Euroi er langt fr v a endurspegla efnahagslegan raunveruleika Eistlendinga.

Launalkkanir hafa veri framkvmdar og eru skiljanlega ekki vinslar, en flestir eru sammla um a r su langt fr ngar. eir eru smuleiis margir sem telja slkt aeins leia til verhjnunar og eirra vandra sem v fylgir.

Margir eir sem g heyri eru sammla um a gengissig s efnahagslega nausyn, en framkvmanlegt fr pltsku sjnarmii.

S gengi fellt ea lti sga, urfa Eistlendingar a gefa upp drauma sna um a taka upp euro, alla vegna drjgan tma, og a sem verra er, brurpartur af eim lnum sem almenningur og fyrirtki hafa teki undanfrnum rum er euroum.

G r eru v dr.

En "fordyri" eurosins, ERM2 er einmitt a sem sumir slenskir stjrnmlamenn tala um a s svo mikilvgt fyrir slendinga a komast inn .


mbl.is Vihalda fastgengisstefnu
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

Martr skra skattgreienda a vera a veruleika?

jverjar hafa gjarnan veri skeptskir euro-i. Margir eirra hafa ttast a a vera samfloti me lndum eins og talu, Spni, Portgal og Grikklandi. Hafa ttast a gjaldmiillinn myndi la fyrir lausung essarra rkja fjrmlum. Hafa einnig ttast a eir myndu urfa a koma essum rkjum til astoar egar harbakkann slgi - me skattf snu.

N er tlit fyrir a essi tti geti ori a veruleika og betur stari rki eurosvisins urfi a koma hinum veikari, en n er fyrst og fremst horft til rlands, talu og Grikklands. Ef til kemur er ljst a meginunginn legst skattgreiendur skalands, sem sj sna verstu martr vera a veruleika. a er ljst a vinsldir eurosins og "Sambandsins" munu ekki aukast meal jverja vi a. Um etta var fjalla nlegri grein vef Spiegel.

a er ljst a skoanir eru skiptar, a er enginn einhugur um essa lei, en a sama skapi eru frammmenn innan stjrnkerfa landanna fyrsta sinn farnir a tala um a opinberlega a eurosvi s hreinlega httu, a sjlfur gjaldmiillinn geti lent alverlegri krsu, jafnvel leysts upp, s ekki gripi til rstafana.

Htta slku er varla mikil, ar sem miki er hfi, en standi hefur a margra mati snt fram veikleika eurosvisins, srstaklega hva varar yfir ea sameiginlega stjrn. msir vilja meina a lausnin s flgin "yfirefnahagsstjrn", sem setji aildarrkjum stlinn fyrir dyrnar hva varar efnahagsstjrn og agerir.

En a verur frlegt a fylgjast me hvernig ml rast nstu vikum og mnuum, hva verur til brags teki og hvort a einhverjar breytingar vera "Sambandinu" og uppbyggingu ess.

a er mnum huga alveg ljst a slendingum liggur ekkert a skja um aild, a er betra og skynsamara a sitja hliarlnunni a minnsta all nokkra hr (lklega til eilfar), v a er raun ekki hgt a segja um hvers kyns "Samband" er veri a skja um aild a.

Hr a nean er nokkur korn r grein Spiegel:

"Germany's Finance Ministry is currently looking into ways to help struggling euro zone member states. Its ultimate aim is to save Europe's common currency from collapse. Will Germany have to bail out other EU states the way it is rescuing its banks and industry?

The Germany finance minister chose a stage far away from the political hustle and bustle of the German capital Berlin to speak about the unspeakable. "We have a few countries in the euro zone who are getting into difficulties with their payments," Peer Steinbrck told a crowd in Dsseldorf on Monday."

"From Steinbrck's perspective, the coming decade may well be a gloomy one -- at least for some members of the euro zone, the countries that have adopted Europe's common currency. Ireland, especially, is currently in a "very difficult situation," Steinbrck said, confirming what until then only currency market speculators or independent researchers had dared to say. Then the minister went a whole lot further: "If one euro zone gets into trouble, then collectively we will have to be helpful."

The concession was tantamount to a complete reversal. Until Monday, not a single representative of the euro zone had been willing to discuss the possibility of aid measures for countries in dire financial straits. Instead they have pointed to the Maastricht Treaty, which provides the foundations for the common currency. The treaty prohibits the community of states from providing financial aid to individual euro zone members. Each government is required to keep its own finances in order so that no country becomes dependent on another."

"Just one week ago, Steinbrck struck an altogether different tone. After a meeting with his fellow euro zone finance ministers, he warned of "horror scenarios." Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) had just acknowledged reports of the growing problems a few governments are starting to have in obtaining fresh capital with the comment: "I think these rumors are unfounded."

The truth, though, is that the European Union, central bankers and governments have had concerns about the stability of the currency zone for some time now. Greece, Ireland and Italy, especially, are seen as wobbling. There's already speculation on the markets that these countries will soon be unable to pay their debts, and what used to be the realm of remote places like South America or Asia could soon play out right in the heart of Europe: the bankruptcy of entire countries.

An unpublished European Commission report on the economic and financial situation of each of the member states sheds light on the desolate situation. According to the report, Italy's national debt will grow by 2010 to 110 percent of gross domestic product. Greece will reach a level close to 100 percent.

Under the Maastricht Treaty, the upper ceiling is 60 percent. Germany, too, is set to exceed that limit in 2010, with the deficit growing to 72 percent of GDP. However, because of its economic strength, it is still considered on financial markets to be the most stabile country in the euro zone. "

"The consequences could be disastrous -- not only for individual countries, but also for the euro zone in its entirety. "As deficits and debt rise rapidly and financial sector rescue packages increase contingent liabilities, market concerns about sustainable fiscal development surface, reflected in sharply risen spreads on sovereign bonds," the study further states.

These statements from EU Currency Commissioner Joaquin Almunia's experts may be written in economic jargon, but they are clearly understood by the financial markets, which are already responding. Compared to German government bonds, which are considered the most secure investments in the euro zone, the three countries are being forced to pay investors a significant risk premium. In Greece that premium is 3 percent, 2.5 percent in Ireland and 1.4 percent in Italy.

Only a short time ago, the costs of floating bonds were largely unified across the euro zone. In light of interest rates that are drifting apart, media in some places, particularly in Britain and the United States, have begun speculating about the possible collapse of Europe's common currency. "Once a blessing, now a burden," the New York Times recently wrote in an article detailing the turbulence. "

"The ECB and European Commission are now moving to bring delinquent countries into line. Earlier this week, Currency Commissioner Almunia and ECB President Trichet took Greece to task. They called on the Greek finance minister to clean up his country's finances and introduce economic reforms.

In Germany, Finance Minister Steinbrck no longer believes that the heavily indebted countries are capable of pulling themselves out of the mess without outside help. He recently asked his staff to draft scenarios for rescue packages. They've come up with four:

  • The payment problems could be solved by issuing "bilateral bonds." In this case, Germany would issue bonds to raise money for hard up countries. It would be a flexible solution, but it would also place the burden of bailing countries out on a few major EU states.

  • As an alternative, a group of several member states could collectively float a bond. The disadvantage for Germany? Interest rates would be higher than if Berlin were to go it alone.

  • The European treaties do not include provisions that would allow Brussels to undertake aid measures at the EU level. But the German Finance Ministry believes it would be legal for the EU to do so. According to the ministry's legal analysis, the EU could provide aid if a member state faced extraordinary circumstances. But the procedure would come with complications, since it would represent the first time the EU had taken out its own loans on capital markets.

  • The final possibility cited by Steinbrck's staff would be an aid package provided by the International Monetary Fund, which already provides aid to countries in a financial state of emergency around the world. Of course, IMF can issue loans under far stricter conditions than would be possible for the EU or member states. The problem is that an intervention on that scale in Europe would not only be damaging for the country receiving the aid, but also for the entire euro zone.

Hardliners like ECB chief economist Stark don't want to hear anything about such proposals. "The ban preventing the EU and its member states from taking responsibility for the debts of partner countries is an important foundation for the currency union to function," he says. Stark fears that additional member states will abandon their fiscal discipline if they know others will bail them out. In his view, countries must take responsibility for cleaning up their own financial messes -- even if it results in the kinds of riots and unrest seen in Greece recently. "

"The euro zone turbulence has shown that procedures so far in place to unify policies and provide checks and balances are insufficient for weathering a serious crisis. The most urgent omission is a provision between governments on the circumstances under which they would be obligated to bail each other out.

Nevertheless, on Wednesday German Finance Minister Steinbrck suggested that the euro zone would still be capable of acting -- even in a worst case scenario. He said it was totally absurd that anyone could believe the collapse of the euro zone was a possibility.

Steinbrck's predecessor as finance minister, Hans Eichel, goes a step further, arguing: "We need a European economic government. The economic and finance policies of individual member states need to be coordinated better than they have been up until now."

The nucleus of what could become that "economic government" already exists with the Euro Group, the body that includes the finance ministers of euro zone states. Its work could be enhanced if, from time to time, the countries' leaders would come together and address pressing economic and financial issues.

During his time in office, Eichel tended to reject the calls for an economic government that were championed by the French. Just as Steinbrck is now doing."


Mish verblga sama myntsvi

a er tbreiddur misskilningur a myntsvi s alltaf sama verblga. ess vegna heyrast gjarna au rk a ef slendingar tkju upp annan gjaldmiil, frist verblga slandi sama horf og myntsvinu.

Ekkert er fjr sannleikanum.

annig er mlum t.d. htta hr Kanada, a fylkjum og borgum er mismunandi verblga, hn er mld og njustu niursturnar m lesa vef Globe and Mail dag.

annig er standi Kanada fr v a verhjnum rkir New Brunswick upp hlft %, en verblga Nunavut er 3.3%. a munar sem s htt 4% milli verblgu einstkum fylkjum.

hafa essi svi smu rkisstjrn, sama selabanka, sama gjaldmiilog a sjlfsgu full og tollalaus viskipti sn milli, enda sama landinu. Rtt er a hafa huga a sjlfsgu eru mismunandi fylkisstjrnir.

egar mismunandi rkisstjrnir sama myntsvi, hafa mismunandi markmi og mismunandi aferir til a n eim, er auveldlega hgt a hugsa sr a munurinn s meiri.


leit a lnsf

Auvita er a rtt hj Gylfa a slendingum er nausynlegt a vera eins gu sambandi vi umheiminn og kostur er. Fum jum eru millirkjaviskipti eins nausynleg og slendingum.

En a auka lnstraust slendinga er ekki auvelt verk n um stundir. Almennt ver g ekki var vi neitt anna en hlhug til slendinga hr minni heimasveit, en myndu lklega flestir svara v til a slenskir bankamenn og viskiptajfrar vru ekki viri jakkafatanna sem eir gengu .

hugi slandi og slandsferum er mikill, en g hygg a fir myndu treysta sleningum til a geyma og vaxta f sitt.

a sem mun auka vandri slendinga v a vera sr t um lnsf n nstu rum er ekki eingngu a banka og viskiptajfrar landsins hafa fari me orspor sitt niur r glfinu, heldur verur trlega lti frambo af lnsf nstu rum.

N egar bankakerfi margra landa standa bjargbrninni (sbr. t.d. essa frtt) og fleiri bankar eru a hluta ea llu leyti eigu hins opinbera, er ekki vi v a bast a mikill hugi veri v a lna til "nmarkaslanda" lkt og slands.

Bankakerfi Sviss, Austurrkis, talu, Grikklands og Svjar (svo nokkur lnd su nefnd) eru a taka sig grarlegt hgg vegna tlnatapa A-Evrpu.

Heildslumarkaur lna verur v a llum lkindum ekki mikill ea sterkur nstu rum.

Einhver ln verur lklega hgt a f, og munu stofnanirs.s. og Norrni fjrfestingarbankinn lklega reynast slendingum mikilvgar.

En mikilvgari en nokkru sinni fyrr er innlendur sparnaur. a ykir ef til vill skrti a reikna me sparnai essu rferi, en stareyndin er s a auvita er til miki af f landinu, sem sst t.d. eirri aukningu sem var selamagni umfer og svo t.d. hvaa upphir voru peningamarkssjum bankanna.

a arf v a grpa til agera sem auka og verlauna sparna. Hi opinbera arf a gera a alaandi a spara. a vri til dmi hgt me v a hafa reikninga (t.d. me kvenu rlegu framlagi) sem vru skattfrjlsir.

a er nausynlegt a verlauna sem spara sta ess a hegna eim.

a er lka nausynlegt a lika til fyrir erlendri fjrfestingu (sem verur ekki til staar mean gjaldeyrishftin eru), v lnsf til verkefna slandi er lklegra til a fst ef erlendir ailar koma a eim eru au su eirra vegu.

En mr ykir a nsta vst a a komi ekki miki erlent lnsf til slands, sumir myndu lklega segja a a vri heldur ekki a btandi, slendingar urfi a lra a lifa af v sem eir afla.


mbl.is Gylfi Zoga: Svartar horfur slandi
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

Obama heimskn

Barack Obama er dag sinni fyrstu utanlandsfr sem forseti Bandarkjanna. Heimsknin er einmitt hinga til Kanada, ea nnar tilteki til hfuborgarinnar Ottawa.

Hrlendir fjlmilar hafa veri veri uppfullir af heimskninni undanfarna daga, enda Obama grarlega vinsll hr Kanada og samkvmt skoanknnum er vinsldaprsenta hans mun hrri hr en Bandarkjunum.

Ekki er bist vi miklum tindum af heimskninni, en samkvmt fjlmilum mun aal umruefnin vera viskipti, ola og umhverfisml.

Viskipti landanna eru mikil og mikilvg og eftir v sem g kemst nst eru engin landamri sem meiri viskipti fara fram yfir, ea u..b. 1.5 milljarar dollar dag. a eru v grarlegir hagsmunir hfi, ekki sst fyrir Kanadaba, en u..b. 2/3 af tflutningi landsins fara til Bandarkjanna. a vakti v nokkurn ugg brjstum Kanadaba egar Obama talai um a kosningabarttunni a eitt af hans fyrstu verkum yri a endurskoa NAFTA frverslunarsamningin. Blainaurinn er t.d. grarlega samttur lndunum og hafa Kanadamenn lagt til mikla asto vi Bandarsku blafyrirtkin. Fyrir bi lndin er frjls viskipti v grarlega mikilvg og ttast margir um hag landanna ef aukin verndarstefna verur ofan.

Loftslagsml eru einnig talin vera framarlega umrunni. Srstaklega er lklegt a vinnslan olusndunum hr veri umrunni, enda umhverfisrask af henni meira en hefbundinni oluvinnslu og vilja sumir Bandarkjamenn hreinlega banna innflutning henni.

En heimskn Obama varir ekki nema nokkrar klukkustundir, en ef a verur eitthva reifanlegt sem kemur t r henni er helst reikna me a tilkynnt veri um samstarfsvettvang svii umhverfismla.

En Kanadabar eru almennt glair yfir v a Obama skuli velja Kanada sem fyrsta landi til a heimskja, en mrgum tti a nlega mgun egar George W. Bush fr sna fyrstu utanlandsfer sem forseti (sem var talin opinber) til Mexk.


Hver verur endanlegur kostnaur?

g get ekki a v gert a a vekur blendnar hugsanir egar g les a a eigi a halda fram me byggingu tnlistarhssins n kreppunni.

Annars vegar er auvelt a glejast yfir v a byggingarinaurinn fi sm innsptingu og strf veri til, sem og a hs rsi sta svusrs miborginni.

Hinsvegar er ekki hgt a verjast eirri tilhugsun a slendingar gtu sett 13. milljara arfari hluti en tnlistarhs eins og standi er landinu n.

Reyndar er varasamt a treysta v a tlun upp 13. milljara standist, enda ekki rki hefi fyrir v slandi a opinberar framkvmdir haldi tlun. Ekki tti mr lklegt a kostnaurinn tti efitr a hkka um einhverja milljara.

Sast en ekki sst er sta til ess a hafa hyggjur af v a rekstrakostnaur hssins btist vi tgjld rkis og borgar um komin r. a allir voni a kreppan veri ekki langvinn, er htt vi a rngt veri bi um all nokkurt skei, og frekar sta til a skera niur en a bta vi tgjldum.

Tnlistarhsi verur lklega fyrst of fremst minnismerki um j sem tlai sr um of. Lklega er arft a slkt minnismerki rsi, en a mtti vera ltlausara, svona til marks um nja tma.


mbl.is Allt a 600 strf vegna framkvmda vi Tnlistarhs
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

Hva arf marga rherra til a tryggja sr lnafyrirgreislu?

g fkk tlvupsti sl frtt sem birtist vefnum eyjunni gr, 17. febrar. Frttin er a einhverju leiti bygg frtt sem birtist vef DV, en lklega meira frtt sem hefur birtst prenttgfunni (sem g hef ekki s).

frtt Eyjunnar er fullyrt a haft hafi veri samband vi 5. rherra sustu rkisstjrn til a lika fyrir lnafyrirgreislu til Jns lafssonar.

Samkvmt frtt Eyjunnar var haft samband vi eftirtalda rherra: Ingibjrgu Slrnu Gsladttur, ssur Skarphinsson, Jhnnu Sigurardttur, rna M. Mathiesen og orgeri Katrnu Gunnarsdttur

S sem upplsti um mli erlafur M. Magnsson, forstjri Mjlku oghugsanlegur frambjandi Framsknarflokksins, en hann munhafa mttekiSMS skeyti og smtl semfru vitlaust nmer.

Jnlafsson stafestir a hann hafi nlega fengi lnafyrirgreilsu hj slenskum banka, en sver fyrir ll pltsk afskipti. rni Mathiesen stafestir hins vegar a hringt hafi veri hann eim tilgangi a greia fyrir lnafyrirgreislu til Jns, en segist ekki hafa beitt sr mlinu, telji a ekki hlutverk stjrnmlamanna.

a arf a sjlfsgu ekkki a koma vart a slk ml komi upp, n egar allir strstu bankarnir eru eigu rkisins og fjrrf flestra fyrirtkja fyrir lnsf grarleg.

En a vekur samt undrun mna hve litla athygli etta ml hefur fengi, a er eins og fjlmilar sni v engan huga, er ekki vegi r nafnleysi, heldur kemur s sem upplsti um mli fram undir fullu nafni. Hr er enginn nafngreindur heimildarmaur.

a er varla hverjum degi sem ja er a v a sitjandi forstirherra og sitjandi utanrkis og inaarrherra komi a elilegri pltskri lnafyrirgreislu.

A auki eru nefndir rr fyrrverandi rherrar og nverandi alingismenn til sgunnar.

Svo a gripi s til algengs (og ofnotas) frasa, hvernig skyldi n ml sem etta vera mehndla ngrannalndunum?


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