Kornið sem fyllir ....

Það hefur verið mikið rætt um skort á matvælum undanfarnar vikur, hækkanir á kornvöru og sumir heimsendaspámenn hafa gengið svo langt að segja að Íslendingar verði að vera þakklátir fyrir það að bændur vilji selja þeim mat, og láta þá hafa meiri pening.

En vissulega eru kornvörur að hækka.  Ekki þó svo að ég hafi fyllt kjallarann af hveiti og hrísgrjónumo og reikni með því að "meika killing" á svartamarkaðnum, en matvara kemur til með að hækka, alla vegna í nokkur ár.

En ef framleiðendur verða látnir í friði, þá nær markaðurin jafnvægi, heimurinn á mikið inni hvað varðar matvælaframleiðslu.

Það er hins vegar mikil ógn, sérstaklega fyrir þá jarðarbúa sem hafa minna á milli handanna, þegar opinberir aðilar byrja að stýra framleiðslunni og beina henni þangað sem sefar samvisku þeirra.  Það hækkar verð og skekkir myndinar.

Þá fer að verða spurning hvort að kornið fyllir magann, eða fyllir á tankinn, eða verður hreinlega kornið sem fyllir mælinn.

Það var ágætlega fróðleg grein um kornvörunar á vef The National Post, nú fyrir nokkrum dögum.

"The global rice shortage has forced prices of the grain to record highs, pushing one of the world's most important staple foods out of reach for those that depend on it most.

"The international rice market is currently facing a particularly difficult situation with demand out stripping supply and substantial price increases," Concepcion Calpe, senior economist for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said in Rome.

The FAO predicts the international rice supply available for trade to drop 3.5% to 29.9 million tonnes this year as some rice-growing countries hoard their crops amid droughts in China and Australia and production declines in the United States and Japan.

China, India, Egypt, Vietnam and Cambodia have either imposed minimum export prices, export taxes or export quotas and, as is the case in India, bans. As a result, demand has surged in countries that rely largely on rice imports, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Iran.

The fall in exports is expected despite a 1.8% increase in rice production. Ms. Calpe said higher rice production may help reduce some of the price pressure, however, population growth would offset much of the gain.

In 2007, global rice paddy production rose 1% to 650 million tonnes, the second consecutive year production fell short of population growth, resulting in a drop in per capita output.

The supply shortage has caused the price of rice -- the staple food for half the world's population -- to soar. Rough rice surged 2.7% to close at US$20.20 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, and is now up 77% since October, when it traded at US$11.40 per 100 pounds.

Ms. Calpe said the very tight supply conditions may last until the end of this year."

"Production is predicted to decline in Australia, with a report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics forecasting the 2008 rice crop to decline by almost 90% due to water shortages. Meanwhile, production in the United States, the world's 4th largest rice exporter, is expected to decline due to mounting competition for more profitable crops, the FAO said.

Kenrick Jordan, senior economist at BMO said U.S. stockpiles of coarse grain, which consists largely of rice and corn, are at 125.6 million metric tonnes for the 2007/08 fiscal year -- the lowest levels since about 1983. He said part of the recent increase in rice prices was related to the soaring prices of other commodities, such as corn, which jumped amid competing demand for the commodity as a source of food and for ethanol production.

The price of wheat futures on the CBOT closed at US$9.37 a bushel, up about 25% from October last year. Prices peaked at US$12.80 on Feb. 27, 71% higher than the October level. Meanwhile, corn futures closed at US$6 a bushel, up 75% since October.

"A lot of the agriculture markets are interrelated," Mr. Jordan said. "They compete for some of the same resources to produce, which would be land, fertilizer, labour."

Mr. Jordan said production will eventually catch up with demand, but that could take a few years. In the meantime, the situation had the possibility to intensify."

"Mr. Zoellick said there needed to be an overhaul of the global food policy, with the world's agricultural trading system stuck in the past.

"If ever there is a time to cut distorting agricultural subsidies and open markets for food imports, it must be now," he said. "The poor need lower food prices now." "